Lecturer | Prof. Felix Abramovich (felix@math.tau.ac.il) |

Lecture Hours
| Tuesday 16-19, Schreiber 007 |

- syllabus
- literature
- example files
- exercises
- exams
### Purpose

Regression analysis plays a central role in statistics being one of its most powerful and commonly used techniques. Regression analysis deals with problems of finding appropriate models to represent relationships between a response variable and a set of explanatory variables based on data collected from a series of experiments. These models are used to represent existing data and also to predict new observations. The basic regression models are*linear*ones. Although they are the simplest and (hence) most well studied models, they nevertheless*do*work in numerious problems. Sometimes even for non-linear models it is possible to transfer the original non-linear model to a linear one after certain transformations of variables; in some other cases linearization of complex non-linear models may be used. In this course we'll try to understand how linear models work and when it is possible to use them efficiently.## Topics:

- Introduction
- regression models
- linear regression models, examples of linear regression models

- Least Squares Estimates
- derivation of LSE for regression coefficients
- statistical properties of LSE
- Gauss-Markov theorem
- geometrical interpretaion of LSE
- multiple correlation coefficient

- Statistical Inference
- maximum likelihood estimators for normal models
- confidence intervals and confidence regions for regression coefficients
- hypothesis testing:
t-test, LRT-test ( *F*-test)

- Model Criticism
- analysis of residuals
- influential observations
- the Box-Cox transformation family

- Prediction and Forecasting
- Model Selection
- criteria for model selection: correlation coefficient, penalized least squares, cross-validation
- model selection and dimensionality reduction in high-dimensions: stepwise procedures, lasso, principle component regression, partial least squares

- Some Special Topics:
- ridge regression
- polynomial regression, orthogonal polynomials
- piecewise-polynomial regression, splines

- Generalized Least Squares
- motivation, derivation of generalized LSE for regression coefficients
- some special cases: unequal variances, repeated measurements, hierarchical models

- Random and mixed effects models
- ANOVA models with fixed and random effects
- variance component (mixed effects) models

- Nonlinear Regression
- least squares estimation, the Gauss-Newton method
- statistical inference

- Generalized Linear Models
- definition, examples
- maximum likelihood estimation, iteratively reweighted least squares
- goodness-of-fit
- particular models (logistic regression, log-linear Poisson model)

### Literature

- Draper, N. and Smith, H. Applied Regression Analysis.
- Faraway, J.J. Linear Models with R.
- Rao, C.R. and Toutenburg, H. Linear Models. Least Squares and Alternatives.
- Ryan, T.P. Modern Regression Methods.
- Seber, G. A. Linear Regression Analysis.
- Sen, A. and Srivastava, M. Regression Analysis: Theory, Methods and Applications.
- much-much more

### Example files:

### Homework Exercises:

- Exercise 1 (3 November)
- Exercise 2 (17 November)
- Exercise 3 (1 December)
- Exercise 4 (29 December)
- Exercise 5 (19 January)

### Exams:

- Theoretical Part (4 February, 12:00)

### Computing:

The course assumes an extensive use of computer. There are no limitations on using various statistical packages and software for this course, although the data-examples considered in the class will be R-``oriented". Installation instructions and manuals for R can be found on the R Home page . The following R based books may be helpful for this course:- Aitkin, M., Francis, B., Hinde, J. and Darnell, R. Statistical Modelling in R.
- Faraway, J.J. Linear Models with R.
- James, G., Witten, D., Hastie, T. and Tibshirani, R. An Introduction to Statistical Learning with Applications in R.
- Venables, W.N. and Ripley, B.D. Modern Applied Statistics with S.

- Introduction