Introduction to Probability
2a. Conditional probabilities
2. Conditioning and independence
Conditional probabilities specify a probability measure.
[Si] "Prob. spaces" : Sect 4 "Conditional probability" : Items
"Definitions and interpretations"
,
"Basic results"
.
[BT] Sect 1.3 "Conditional probability" : Item "Conditional probabilities specify a probability law" (p. 19-).
[GS]
: Sect 4.1 "Discrete conditional probability" (pp. 133-134).
Using conditional probabilities for modeling; asymmetric tree diagrams.
[BT] Sect 1.3 "Conditional probability" : Item "Using conditional probability for modeling" (p. 22-).
[GS]
: Sect 4.1 "Discrete conditional probability" : Example 4.5 (p. 135).
The law of total probabilty and Bayes' rule.
[Si] "Prob. spaces" : Sect 4 "Conditional probability" : Item
"The law of total probabilty and Bayes' theorem"
.
[BT] Sect 1.4 "Total probabilty theorem and Bayes' rule".
[GS]
: Sect 4.1 "Discrete conditional probability" : Items "Bayes probabilities" (p. 136-), "Bayes' formula" (p. 145-).
Some paradoxes.
[BT] Problems to Sections 1.3, 1.4 (pp. 55-59).
[GS]
: Sect 4.3 "Paradoxes".
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