A stochastic model of a population of interacting heterogeneous consumers that explains the discontinuity of the price-demand relation.
Our model mimiques the behavior of a population of consumers of a good
or a service. The demand of each consumer depends on his/her intrinsic
preference, on the price and on the aggregate demand of the whole
population or of the consumer's peers. The intrinsic preferences and the
susceptibility to the aggregate demand are distributed over the
population in accordance to two probability laws. These laws turn our
model into a stochastic process. The time component of the model allows
us for modeling the change in the demand of each consumer. The model may
be studied in two regimes: when the price is fixed, and when the price
changes in time depending on the current value of the aggregate
demand. In the first case, we investigate the long time limit of the
aggregate demand. We find that it is a continuous or a discontinuous
function of price depending on the values of the variance of the
probability laws that represent the intrinsic preferences and the social
susceptibility. We shall argue that the formation of price in real life
may be explained through the lenses of this phase transition. In the
second case, we investigate the joint behavior of price and demand. We
show that depending on the variance of the probability laws, these
quantities either oscillate or converge. This phase transition allows
one to understand the formation of market booms and crashes, as we shall
argue.
We shall discuss different mathematical treatments of the proposed
model. One of them required understanding of a specific dynamical
system. The reported results have been obtained in collaboration with
Fernando Pigeard de A. Prado, Antonio Luiz Pereira and Paolo Tommasini.